Valentine’s Day conjures up images of flowers and chocolates. But it’s really about love. Love is a powerful emotion. It builds people up, makes them feel invincible only to tear them down when things go astray.
Should you try to find love this Valentine’s Day? Is love worth all the pain?
The short answer — yes, love is absolutely worth it.
If you’re looking for a mushy love letter from me … sorry, you’re in the wrong place. Don’t take it the wrong way, I’m thankful for each and every one of you. But this Valentine’s Day, I’m saving all my love for Mother Earth.
Our planet is in desperate need of love and affection. The human race treats everything like it’s disposable. We use up a resource or destroy an area only to move onto the next. What happens when there isn’t a next?
People don’t seem to care about the planet. I don’t think people are inherently evil. They’re misguided — maybe misinformed. Earth is all we’ve got. We have one planet. There aren’t any do-overs. It’s time to get serious.
My Favorite Kind of Love This Valentine’s Day
Believe it or not, I’m capable of love. I love my family, animals, traveling to new countries, learning about new cultures, building schools, and teaching.
When I first started trading, it was so much harder to find financial information. That information barrier allowed people to take advantage of uneducated traders.
So I set out to make the sketchy penny stock industry more transparent. The internet made that possible.
Over time, the information inefficiencies improved. It’s not perfect, but it’s easier than ever to access financial information. (I use this revolutionary tool every day.)
It’s great that we’ve seen some changes in the market. Promoters aren’t what they used to be. But I think we can do better. I know we can do more.
Remember, it doesn’t matter how rich you become … If the planet is dying around you, you won’t be able to enjoy your hard work.
I love my life and that I have the opportunity to give back in so many ways. But if we don’t save the planet, none of it matters.
Think about it … on a dying planet, your hard work, your studying, your money — it’s all worthless.
That’s why I’m dedicated to making the planet a better place. It’s about education and information. Just as it is with penny stocks.
Modern Day Black Gold
Information is a valuable commodity in the modern world. By some accounts, it’s more valuable than oil. Sadly, far too many people still don’t have access to good information.
There’s undeniable scientific proof Earth is dying. So why does the mainstream media suppress these stories?
I don’t know. It’s disgusting. And it’s part of why I’ve turned to social media. Information can spread through social media at lightning speeds. And it can help directly influence society.
My obsession led to the birth of my Karmagawa charity. I believe that together we can elicit change and leave the world in a better place.
Why Should We Care About Animals?
I hate it when people say…
“Why do you care about endangered species? It’s evolution. It’s how the world works”.
Narrow-minded people who think like that are the problem. Don’t blow off a problem with a lame excuse. Humans share the planet with millions of species. As a species, we need to own up to our mistakes.
We understand so little about the world we call home…
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Repost from @karmagawa We love this photo of a critically endangered orangutan extending his hand to help a man out of snake-infested waters in Borneo as this is the exact type of kindness that we humans must learn to show to animals in these desperate times. Sadly, it’s estimated that the Bornean orangutan population has dropped by 80% within the past three generations and an estimated 150,000 orangutans have been killed in the last 15 years alone. This is due to deforestation, the clearing of their rainforest habitat for logging, pulp paper and palm oil plantations, and the truly terrible practice of poaching orangutan mothers and selling their infants as pets. We humans MUST do better, we MUST stop killing so many innocent animals and treating them so badly otherwise we doom the future of our planet and our own species too. The #coronavirus is truly tragic, but since it appears to have started in a wild animal market, it should be a wakeup call for EVERYONE to change our ways and treat animals with love and respect before it’s too late! Please use your social media platform to help us spread awareness about this URGENT crisis, share this beautiful photo and important message with your followers and tag people, celebrities, influencers and news media that need to see it — let’s all work together and extend our own hands to help animals worldwide! Amazing photo by @anil_t_prabhakar #savetheorangutans #endanimalcruelty #karmagawa
Take the pangolin for example. Have you ever heard of a pangolin? Most people from western cultures haven’t.
Pangolins are the most heavily trafficked animal in the world. It’s a disturbing issue. Type in “pangolin” on Instagram and a warning pops up. Maybe you’re wondering…
Why Are Pangolins So Valuable?
Honestly … they shouldn’t be. It’s not that we shouldn’t value them. But people have a lot of misinformation. Some believe pangolin scales can cure cancer, headaches, or STDs. So they eat pangolin scales.
Dozens of cultures have ‘medicinal’ purposes for pangolins. Those claims are 100% false — similar to rhino horns.
How does this affect you?
A recent article places pangolins at the epicenter of the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak. Yep, I’m talking about Covid-19 — the virus that so far has claimed the lives of over 1,000 people and shut down large portions of China.
Researchers from the article discovered a 99% link between Covid-19 and a virus pangolins carry naturally. The virus is self-contained in pangolins — but humans created the problem.
When humans sell pangolins in unhygienic markets and mix them with other exotic animals, the virus mutates. All it takes is one mutation. Once the virus spread to humans, we got this pandemic.
You should watch the movie “Contagion.” It’s not a documentary, but the producers did a great job explaining how deadly viruses come about. It’s eye-opening.
The Karmagawa Movement
Karmagawa has gained 300,000 followers on Instagram the past month. We’re bringing awareness to topics people have never heard about and they love it. Follow Karmagawa here.
I bet most of you never heard of a pangolin before this post. The mainstream media doesn’t talk about pangolins. Yet, this little weird endangered species might be the cause of the deadliest virus in decades. It’s important to learn about this stuff.
One of the core problems Karmagawa is trying to solve is people’s misinformation about endangered animals. We have science, facts, and statistics proving pangolin scales and rhino horns have no medicinal value.
Too many people don’t understand science. They prefer to believe old wives’ tales and superstitions. We’re working to change that.
Karmagawa’s working to spread accurate information and crush misguided beliefs.
By killing these animals and treating them terribly, humans are creating new viruses. Viruses that are killing us.
What if it’s karma … we kill animals and inadvertently destroy the human race? Sorry, I don’t want karma like that. We need to respect this planet and all the life on it. And ultimately, we have to understand that…
Why Charity Is So Important to Me
I love helping people. But it’s crucial to remember humans aren’t the only species on Earth.
I want you to take a minute and try to look at these pictures. I know they can be horrific … but this is actually happening around the world…
Warning: Graphic Images. Some people may find the following content disturbing or offensive.
View this post on Instagram
⚠️WARNING: GRAPHIC IMAGES⚠️ Repost from @karmagawa Please share this URGENT post about the coronavirus outbreak with your followers as people have begun killing their pets, mistakenly believing that they can get the virus from them AND THAT IS NOT TRUE! There is NO evidence that cats and dogs spread this virus and pets do not deserve to be killed all due to rumors/misinformation! Swift left to see photos of this tragedy and read the official statement from the World Health Organization that says there is no evidence that dogs or cats can get infected with this new virus and please share this URGENT information with your followers and HELP US ALERT EVERYONE RIGHT NOW to save the lives of too many innocent animals that are being killed due to these ugly rumors! Sadly, after these rumors went viral on social media in China, reports say several poor animals were thrown from the upper floors of apartment buildings in the middle of the night, waking up neighbors when they hit the ground, and found in street the next morning. This virus is truly scary, having now killed 426 people with 20,620 confirmed cases in 27 countries and 60+ million more people are still on lockdown to prevent further spreading, but we must NOT spread false rumors and remember to treat other people, and animals, with respect. To stay updated in real-time our US followers can now text us at 323-310-1679 and also follow @karmagawa on Instagram too. Please let’s all use our social media platforms to spread accurate information ONLY, not rumors that cost innocent animals their lives so share this URGENT post with your followers and tag people, celebrities, influencers and news media that need to see this and let’s work together to to save as many humans and animals alike as possible! #coronavirus #endanimalcruelty #coronavirusoutbreak #karmagawa
We force animals into terrible situations. This cruelty must stop.
View this post on Instagram
⚠WARNING GRAPHIC IMAGES⚠ Repost from @karmagawa THIS ANIMAL CRUELTY MUST STOP RIGHT NOW! Please share this URGENT video of a kangaroo being forced to box and fight in front of a paying audience with your followers and tag people, celebrities, influencers and news media that need to see this as we MUST work together to stop blatant animal cruelty like this before any more innocent animals are hurt! Let us be very clear: WILD ANIMALS ARE NOT ENTERTAINMENT AND SHOULD NEVER BE FORCED TO BOX/FIGHT! The key to ending this madness is making everyone aware and creating laws to make shows like this illegal and that process begins with you sharing this with your followers and tagging people who need to see this RIGHT NOW! Let’s all use our social media platforms for good — as disgusting animal shows like this only happen because too many unaware people buy tickets and do not realize how cruel they are to the animals…we can fix that by working together to educate EVERYONE and put a stop to this abuse RIGHT NOW! #dontbuyaticket #endanimalcruelty #karmagawa
Look at these markets … This is inhumane.
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⚠WARNING GRAPHIC IMAGES⚠ Repost from @karmagawa Please share this CRUCIAL post with your followers because we must make EVERYONE aware that the unhygienic markets where live dogs, cats, snakes, rats, bats, monkeys and many other animals are traded are NOT just in China, THEY EXIST WORLDWIDE! And because these markets are breeding grounds for deadly zoonotic diseases (viruses that spread from animals to humans) like SARS, MERS and now the coronavirus, WE MUST BAN THEM ALL PERMANENTLY before any more viruses are created and getting the word out about this URGENT PROBLEM is key to saving countless lives! The coronavirus may have come from bats as they host the highest proportion of viruses of any animal, and with more than 1,300 species of bats, they are second only to rodents in mammal diversity, so selling these creatures with countless viruses in these disgusting markets is sadly the perfect environment for deadly viruses to grow and mutate to become deadly to humans as one of them will eventually go truly viral and kill thousands, if not millions of people…so, why risk it? The problem is hardly anyone is aware that this is a global issue so WE MUST use our social media platforms to spread awareness and BAN WILD ANIMAL TRADING WORLDWIDE, not just in China, as this new coronavirus, which still has no vaccine, has now killed 132 people with 5,900 confirmed cases in 15 countries, numbers which are growing 30-50% per day despite attempts to limit its spreading. To stay updated in real-time about this crisis, our US followers can now text us at 323-310-1679 and also follow @karmagawa on Instagram too. Please pray for the the victims of the virus and their families and share this post with your followers and tag people, celebrities, influencers and news media that need to see this and let’s work together to PERMANENTLY ban the trading of wild animals, not just in China, but WORLDWIDE! Eye-opening photos by @paulhiltonphoto #coronavirus #endanimalcruelty #coronavirusoutbreak #karmagawa
Humans are taking advantage of these innocent animals. This horrific treatment will come back to haunt us in ways we can’t expect…
View this post on Instagram
⚠WARNING GRAPHIC IMAGES⚠ Repost from @karmagawa Please share this URGENT post about the coronavirus epidemic with your followers as the origin of the virus has been traced to the zone of the Wuhan market where live wild animals like snakes, rats, bats and monkeys were traded before China instituted a temporary ban yesterday. But a temporary ban is NOT enough, WE MUST use our social media platforms to spread awareness and BAN WILD ANIMAL TRADING WORLDWIDE as this is EXACTLY what caused the SARS virus that killed nearly 800 people in 2003! SARS was 17 years ago and yet these markets are doing the exact same thing, selling live wild animals in unhygienic conditions that create diseases with devastating consequences for the entire human race! This new virus, which has no vaccine, has killed 82 people with 2,887 confirmed cases in 15 countries, numbers which have increased 50% SINCE YESTERDAY and 60 million more people are on lockdown to prevent further spreading. To stay updated in real-time our US followers can now text us at 323-310-1679 and also follow @karmagawa on Instagram too. Please pray for the world and share this URGENT post with your followers and tag people, celebrities, influencers and news media that need to see this and let’s work together to PERMANENTLY ban the trading of wild animals that create these deadly viruses! #coronavirus #endanimalcruelty #coronavirusoutbreak #karmagawa
Some of my Instagram followers ask: “Why post such gruesome pictures? Why don’t you just talk about stocks?”
I talk about stocks all the time. I have a ridiculously strong work ethic.
Some people follow me on social media because they don’t want to pay for my Trading Challenge. They think they can sneak by without investing in their education.
I don’t have a problem with anyone taking advantage of all the free information that’s available. That’s why there’s so much of it out there — I want you to learn as much as you can. But once you’re truly serious about trading, you’ll have to…
Step It Up
If you want to learn from me, apply for my Trading Challenge today. But I don’t have time for lazy people.
Or check out my YouTube channel for free lessons. You won’t find a full market education there, but it’s a good start.
Since I started Karmagawa, I don’t post as many trading tips on Instagram. Honestly, it’s not the best place for it. And it seems silly to use my audience for only the stock market.
Karmagawa is about helping the planet, animals, and humans.
Check out the incredible work we do in this Karmagawa documentary about saving rhinos…
Or learn about Earth’s depleting oxygen source…
Karmagawa isn’t solely focused on land animals. Some of Earth’s greatest treasures are in its oceans. In the coral reef documentary, we explain how underwater “trees” account for a larger portion of Earth’s oxygen than the trees on the surface. The world is an incredible place.
So it’s not just about stepping it up as a trader, it’s about being a better human.
Misinformation Kills Innocent People
The coronavirus doesn’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon … Sadly, the number of confirmed cases is speeding up.
I’m still not stocking up on supplies, but the virus is deeply concerning. If humans keep selling, exploiting, and eating these exotic animals … it’s only a matter of time before we create a virus that wipes us out.
Exotic animals like bats, pangolins, and rodents are the most dangerous. These animals have a lot of viruses that naturally coexist in their systems.
It’s rare for humans to contract these viruses. Viruses don’t just jump from one species to another. But when humans mix exotic animals and force them into terrible conditions … it doesn’t take an immunologist to know bad things will happen.
Where Can You Get Real Information?
Whether it comes to trading or taking care of the planet and its inhabitants, I’ve taken it upon myself to spread real information on all my social channels.
Why? Because I HATE misinformation.
I hate misinformation in the stock market. I hate misinformation that kills the planet. People deserve to know the full story.
It’s important to help teach people. Too many people learn useless lessons in the public school system. Too few are exposed to useful information … or they believe fake influencers on Instagram. Don’t trust random people. Make people earn their titles.
There is a ton of misinformation out there. It’s important to know how to ignore the noise.
Let me put it this way … I want to be the teacher I never had. I had to figure out how to day trade on my own and I made millions.* But money wasn’t enough to make me happy. I had to teach myself how I could make a difference in the world.
I want to share with you everything I’ve ever learned. Find the right information. Study it and let it change your life.
Here are some of my top trading education resources. Learn it. Live it…
Trading Challenge: this is my most comprehensive course. Only apply when you’re willing to commit because not everyone gets accepted. Come ready to focus on what really matters.
Pennystocking Silver: the 6,000+ video lesson library gives you years of trading insight and examples.
“The Complete Penny Stock Course” … I get asked so many questions that are answered in this book. It’s a great place to start.
My best-selling book “An American Hedge Fund”: you can get this today for free.
PennyStocking 101: my free course to give you foundational knowledge. Some experienced traders have even asked why I’m giving away so much information for free.
My YouTube channel: get access to well over 1,000 free video lessons. Priceless knowledge.
Information Isn’t The Enemy
I believe through education and social media we can clamp down on misinformation. I’ve already changed the way a lot of people think about penny stocks. Two decades ago, people wouldn’t touch a stock under $5 with a ten-foot pole.
Many people didn’t like the fact that I was sharing penny stock patterns and teaching people how to take advantage of this niche.
Haters used to say, “Don’t teach penny stocks. It’s just a bunch of losers and scams.”
… but now I have hundreds of profitable students and several millionaire students.*
As better information spreads, the penny stock landscape changes. Before, this niche was filled with promoters and suckers. There was no middle ground. There were a few professional traders who kept what they knew quiet. I don’t want to do that.
I believe in people and I believe in the power of knowledge. My Trading Challenge has helped several millionaire traders learn a repeatable process. Locking in small amounts every day and avoiding large risks.
Twenty years ago, traders like my successful students didn’t exist … Now, they’re living lives they never thought possible, and providing for their families and generations to come…
AND, they’re teaching their kids to take care of their families and the planet and all its creatures…
See how the circle of life and love can keep going? Let’s keep it up!
I want to apply the same concepts that helped my students make millions to save our planet. There will always be hate and confusion, but I will always work to share and spread good information. Knowledge can change the world.
I donate all my trading profits to charity. I don’t care about profits. I’ve made enough money in the market. (See all my verified trades on Profit.ly.)
For me, it’s about helping people. I do that through education and charity.
I’m not saying you need to do as much as I do. You don’t have to donate all your profits or make documentaries. But I think you should care. I think it’s really important to give something to reputable charities — 5%–10% of your earnings.
Let’s work together to make this a better planet for ALL animals and humans.
I’ll keep sharing this information. I’d appreciate it if you share it too. I know some of what I post isn’t pretty or fun to look at, but it’s important. I’m trying to look after the world. You should too.
[*Profits my students and I have earned trading are not typical. Please remember that all trading is risky. 90% of traders lose. Do your due diligence and research every trade. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.]
How do you help care for the planet? Let me know in the comments … I love to hear from you!
Here are all the things that could go wrong in 2020, according to Nouriel Roubini
From hot wars to weaponized financial assets, the U.S. faces severe economic, financial, political and geopolitical disturbances
According to Taleb, black swans are events that emerge unpredictably, like a tornado, from a fat-tailed statistical distribution. But I argued that financial crises, at least, are more like hurricanes: They are the predictable result of built-up economic and financial vulnerabilities and policy mistakes.
There are times when we should expect the system to reach a tipping point — the “Minsky Moment” — when a boom and a bubble turn into a crash and a bust. Such events are not about the “unknown unknowns” but rather the “known unknowns.”
Financial markets remain blissfully in denial of the many predictable global crises that could come to a head this year, particularly in the months before the U.S. presidential election. In addition to the increasingly obvious risks associated with climate change, at least four countries want to destabilize the US from within.
Beyond the usual economic and policy risks that most financial analysts worry about, a number of potentially seismic white swans are visible on the horizon this year. Any of them could trigger severe economic, financial, political and geopolitical disturbances unlike anything since the 2008 crisis.
For starters, the United States is locked in an escalating strategic rivalry with at least four implicitly aligned revisionist powers: China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. These countries all have an interest in challenging the U.S.-led global order, and 2020 could be a critical year for them, owing to the U.S. presidential election and the potential change in U.S. global policies that could follow.
Under President Donald Trump, the U.S. is trying to contain or even trigger regime change in these four countries through economic sanctions and other means. Similarly, the four revisionists want to undercut American hard and soft power abroad by destabilizing the U.S. from within through asymmetric warfare.
If the U.S. election descends into partisan rancor, chaos, disputed vote tallies and accusations of “rigged” elections, so much the better for America’s rivals. A breakdown of the U.S. political system would weaken American power abroad.
Moreover, some countries have a particular interest in removing Trump.
The acute threat that he poses to the Iranian regime gives it every reason to escalate the conflict with the U.S. in the coming months — even if it means risking a full-scale war — on the chance that the ensuing spike in oil prices CL.1, -0.78%would crash the U.S. stock market DJIA, -0.78% SPX, -1.05% , trigger a recession and sink Trump’s re-election prospects.
Yes, the consensus view is that the targeted killing of Qassem Soleimani has deterred Iran, but that argument misunderstands the regime’s perverse incentives. War between U.S. and Iran is likely this year; the current calm is the one before the proverbial storm.
Cold War with China
. . .[more]
Which Grocer Should You Invest in?
Some of the most interesting (and profitable) investments stem from businesses that we interact with on a daily basis. Many of these businesses provide a service to us that we take for granted, and it’s that sense of necessity that makes some of those businesses great investment options.
An example of this is your local grocery store. Grocers are interesting investment options in that they perform a necessary service to us, much like a utility does, but unlike a utility bill, most of us enjoy buying groceries.
The case for Loblaw
Loblaw is the larger of the two grocers, with a network of over 2,000 locations across Canada, including over 1,300 Shoppers Drug mart locations, Shoppers is the largest pharmacy in Canada and has benefited from the cross-selling of Loblaw-branded products in its stores in recent years.
Speaking of brands, Loblaw benefits from owning some of the most well-known brands, including President’s Choice and Life Brand. The company has also branched out into other areas in recent years, including offering financial services through its PC Financial arm and its clothing line Joe Fresh.
The most recent quarterly results are for the fourth quarter of 2019, announced earlier this year. In that quarter, Loblaw reported revenue of $11,590, reflecting an increase of 3.3%, or $372 million over the same period last year. Both the food and drug retail segments saw growth of 1.9% and 3.9%, respectively.
Adjusted EBITDA came in at $1,205 million, reflecting a $310 million, or 34.6% improvement over the same quarter in fiscal 2018.
In terms of a dividend, Loblaw offers investors a quarterly payout that works out to a 1.78% yield, which probably won’t resonate with investors looking for a dividend stock. The flip side of that argument is that Loblaw is a defensive investment in that people continue to buy their groceries irrespective of the economy, and Loblaw has hiked the dividend on a nearly annual basis for several years.
At time of writing, Loblaw trades at $69.50 with a P/E of 24.91.
The case for Metro
With a network of 950 food stores and 650 pharmacy locations, Metro is the smaller of the two companies. Unlike Loblaw’s presence across most of the country, Metro’s footprint is limited to Quebec and parts of Ontario.
In terms of results, the most recent available results are for the first quarter of 2020, which were released in December of 2019. During that quarter, Metro reported sales of $4,029.8 million, reflecting an increase of 1.3% over the prior year. Similar to Loblaw, much of that growth stemmed from the pharmacy segment, which saw same-store sales surge 3.6% in the quarter. Across Metro’s food segment the company saw same-store sales increase by 1.4%.
Adjusted net earnings for the quarter came in at $180.9 million, up 5.1% over the same period last year. Metro also announced a hike to its dividend in the amount of 12.5%, reflecting a payout range of 30-40% of the adjusted net earnings of the prior year. Metro’s dividend currently works out to a 1.45% yield.
Metro currently trades at just over $55 with a P/E of 20.75.
The better investment
Both Metro and Loblaw make compelling investment cases. Both have growing networks of stores, and both offer a complementary pharmacy network that benefits from cross-selling and easier access to new markets.
That being said, in my opinion, Loblaw is a better investment at the moment. Loblaw’s larger more diversified network of stores lends itself to a larger market of customers, with more growth potential.
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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning February 24th, 2020
Good Saturday morning to all of you here on r/StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning February 24th, 2020.
Coronavirus fears spoiled a solid earnings season and will further dominate markets ahead – (Source)
The coronavirus outbreak ruined for investors what was a solid earnings reporting season and is casting a pall on forecasts for this quarter and the rest of this year. And now with most of the earnings season in the books, look for the latest coronavirus headlines to fill the vacuum and weigh on stocks the rest of the month.
Fourth-quarter profit growth for S&P 500 companies came in at 3.1%, and if the energy sector is excluded, the growth rate was 6.0%, according to Refinitiv. Just about four weeks ago, analysts expected a slight decline.
However, the deluge of solid corporate results was largely overlooked by investors who are focusing on the spillover impact from the coronavirus on U.S. corporations. Stocks post losses this week as a jump in confirmed coronavirus cases and deaths deepened concerns about slowing global economic growth. Major U.S. companies including Apple, Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble have sounded alarms on the disease, warning of a dent in profits down the road.
“The virus is totally underrated,” CNBC’s Jim Cramer said on Friday.“What I think is a little too premature is they all presume that it is going to be solved within a foreseeable time frame. At what point do we say that many, many companies are going to be hurt by the virus [and] we’re paying too much for stocks.”
‘More cautious than usual’
Wall Street analysts have been quick to slash their earnings expectations for the next quarter in light of the fast-spreading virus. Expectations for earnings growth in the first quarter have been cut in half to just 3.2% from more than 6% at the start of 2020, according to Refinitiv.
Companies themselves are also lowering guidance for earnings growth in the near future. There have been more U.S. companies issuing below-consensus guidance for the next quarter than those with upbeat forecasts, marking the weakest ratio in a February since 2014, according to Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America.
“While guidance is typically weak in the first quarter as corporates set a low bar, it has been more cautious than usual this earnings season, likely due to the coronavirus,” Subramanian said in a note.
Nearly half of the S&P 500 companies have cited coronavirus during their earnings call this season, according to FactSet. These companies’ average revenue exposure to China is 7.2%, compared to 4.8% exposure for the average S&P 500 company.
As of Friday, China’s National Health Commission reported more than 75,000 confirmed cases and over 2,000 deaths on the mainland. South Korea has also reported more than 200 cases. Meanwhile, World health officials said the outbreak in Iran is “very worrisome.”
“Lost in those headlines is corporate America’s impressive performance this earnings season,” John Lynch, LPL Financial’s chief investment strategist, said in a note. “Companies have done an admirable job growing profits considering stiff headwinds.”
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
Major Indices for this past week:
Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:
Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:
Sector Performance WTD, MTD, YTD:
Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:
S&P Sectors for the Past Week:
Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:
Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:
Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:
Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:
Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:
Earnings Season Observations
The recent news that technology giant Apple would miss its fourth quarter 2020 revenue targets has understandably increased investor anxiety surrounding the potential economic impact of the coronavirus (now called COVID-19). Lost in those headlines is corporate America’s impressive performance this earnings season.
“Companies have done an admirable job growing profits considering stiff headwinds,” said LPL Financial Chief Investment Strategist John Lynch. “Despite slowing global economic growth, weakness in capital investment and manufacturing, a strong US dollar, and a huge drop in energy sector profits, S&P 500 companies are impressively grinding out 1-2 percentage points of overall earnings growth.” The fourth quarter earnings growth may cement the third quarter of 2019 as the trough, as shown in the LPL Chart of the Day below.
Some highlights of this earnings season:
- Solid revenue upside. A solid 65% of S&P 500 Index companies have beaten revenue estimates, the highest level since second quarter 2018 and well above the long-term average at 57%. S&P 500 companies have produced a larger-than-normal nearly one percentage point positive revenue surprise and are tracking to a 3.5% top-line increase.
- Respectable earnings upside despite headwinds. The earnings beat rate at 71% is slightly above the 10-year average (70%). S&P 500 earnings growth has surprised by a solid 4.4% so far despite economic, currency, and commodity headwinds.
- Consider the energy drag. Though 1-2% overall earnings growth isn’t much, the gain is approximately 4%, excluding the energy sector.
- Sector standout. One of the most China-exposed sectors produced one of the biggest upside earnings surprises: Technology. Technology sector earnings growth is tracking to a 5% year-over-year increase, about 9 percentage points above prior estimates.
- Reassuring outlooks. Estimates for S&P 500 earnings per share in 2020 have only fallen by about 0.9% since December 31, 2019. Though these numbers may come down a bit more in the coming days and the China situation remains fluid, this modest reduction reflects U.S. companies’ resilience overall amid significant supply chain disruptions.
Election Year March: Performance Haunted By Steep 1980 Declines
Boisterous March markets tend to drive prices up early in the month and batter stocks at month end. Julius Caesar failed to heed the famous warning to “beware the Ides of March” but investors have been served well when they have. Stock prices have a propensity to decline, sometimes rather precipitously, during the latter days of the month. In March 2001, DJIA plunged 1469 points (-11.8%) from March 9 to the 22.
Normally a decent performing market month, March is somewhat above average in election years with advances 64.7% of the time with a 1.0% average DJIA gain since 1952. S&P 500 has also advanced 64.7% of the time since 1952, but gains have been slightly better at 1.2%, on average. NASDAQ has not fared well in March in election years since 1972. Due to a 17.1% loss in 1980, March is NASDAQ’s second worst month of the election year. Similarly, March 1980’s steep losses adversely affect Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 indices.
Performance Throughout The Presidencies
As markets were closed to observe Presidents Day yesterday and the 2020 Presidential election continues to ramp up, we thought it would be a good time to check up on stock performance during different administrations. In the table below, we show the performance of the Dow during the administrations of every US president since 1900 in addition to the annualized return. In the time since President Trump was sworn into office, the Dow has risen 46.9%. On an annualized basis, the 13.3% return places the current administration in 3rd place for the strongest performance. Only the Clinton administration in the 1990s and Coolidge administration in the 1920s have observed stronger annualized gains. The one caveat of course is that President Trump's term (or terms) has yet to end. Comparing Democratic and Republican administrations since 1900, Democratic presidencies have tended to average stronger returns than their Republican peers, so the stock market's returns under President Trump have deviated somewhat from the norm.
While it is impossible to say what a candidate's election will mean for the market, at the moment betting markets favor the incumbent to win the presidency while Bernie Sanders and Michael Bloomberg go back and forth in taking the number 2 spot, hovering around 15%-16%. Come Super Tuesday (March 3rd) when we could finally see more clarity on the Democratic side, the back and forth between Bloomberg and Sanders might become more one-sided.
Yet Another Corona Friday
The major indices decided it was five o'clock somewhere right off the bat today as they experience yet another "Corona Friday". More concerns around the coronavirus have sent stocks lower with the S&P 500 down around 1.1% as of this writing and the Nasdaq down nearly 2% today. Declines on a Friday have become par for the course in 2020. Fridays have been the weakest day of the week so far in 2020; the only one to average a decline. On average, the S&P 500 has fallen 0.52% on Fridays while the next worst day has been Monday which has averaged a gain of 0.19%. Fridays have also been the day that the S&P 500 has closed higher the least. Only 28.6% of Fridays this year have seen the S&P 500 finish in the green. That compares to a positive close more than three-quarters of the time on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays. While it has averaged a gain of 0.24%, Tuesdays have also experienced a positive close less than half of the time. Try Bespoke's premium research package for free for two weeks.
New All-Time Highs for S&P 500 and NASDAQ – Well Above Average Gains in Election Year
As of today’s close, DJIA is up 2.84%, S&P 500 +4.81% and NASDAQ is up a whopping 9.41% year-to-date. All three indexes are well above their respective historical averages for this time of an election year. NASDAQ has in fact already exceeded its average full election year performance going back to 1972. Bullish sentiment and momentum appear to be firmly in place and historical election year patterns suggests strength could easily continue for DJIA and S&P 500 into May. NASDAQ’s surge higher could be vulnerable to a retreat sooner, in March.
A Dow Without Boeing (BA)
For more than a year now, Boeing (BA) has been plagued by the 737 MAX crisis which has weighed on shares of the plane manufacturer with it now currently down nearly 20% from when the initial groundings took place on March 10th of last year. Despite this, while underperforming the broader market due to the 737 issues, the stock is actually still up just over 5% since the start of 2019.
Even though BA has lagged, it is still the highest-priced of the 30 stocks in the price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average. Currently trading around $338.50, the only stocks in the index holding a candle to BA are Apple (AAPL) and UnitedHealth (UNH), which also trade north of $300 per share. That means these stocks have the highest weighting in the index and therefore have a much larger impact than other stocks on the Dow's performance.
With BA's issues, a number of people have pondered the what-ifs for the Dow had the company not had the issues with the 737. Would we have already broken out the Dow 30K hats were it not for BA? In the chart below, we show the actual performance of the DJIA and have overlaid the performance of an 'alternate Dow' showing its performance if BA had not been in the index since the start of 2019. We used the start of 2019 instead of the actual date of the groundings as it is a little less arbitrary. By our calculations, while we would be a bit closer, even if BA wasn't in the index since the start of 2019, we wouldn't quite be at Dow 30K yet. As shown, our alternate Dow would be almost 1% or 266 points higher if Boeing was not included in the index since the start of 2019.
While BA has been a drag on the DJIA since last March, it also provided a big boost to the index in early 2018 before the 737 issues hit the stock. In fact, at the start of March 2017, BA was up over 36% YTD and the spread between the Dow's performance with and without BA was around 700 points in the other direction as it is now!
Another example of this dynamic in which high priced stocks have a greater impact on the index was observed on Tuesday when Apple's (AAPL) stock fell after the company warned that Q1 revenues would be shy of prior guidance due to the coronavirus. The warnings sent shares down over 3% at its intraday lows, but the stock only finished down 1.83%. While there were equivalent or larger declines like Dow (DOW) or Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) in Tuesday's session, AAPL's declines by far weighed on the index more than any other stock. Of the Dow's 165.89 point decline, AAPL contributed 40.35 points. Fortunately, UNH helped to mitigate some of those losses as it had a positive impact on the index of +22.79 points.
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending February 21st, 2020
STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 2.23.20
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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:
Monday 2.24.20 Before Market Open:
Monday 2.24.20 After Market Close:
Tuesday 2.25.20 Before Market Open:
Tuesday 2.25.20 After Market Close:
Wednesday 2.26.20 Before Market Open:
Wednesday 2.26.20 After Market Close:
Thursday 2.27.20 Before Market Open:
Thursday 2.27.20 After Market Close:
Friday 2.28.20 Before Market Open:
Friday 2.28.20 After Market Close:
([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
Beyond Meat, Inc. $117.45
Beyond Meat, Inc. (BYND) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Thursday, February 27, 2020. The consenus estimate is for breakeven results on revenue of $79.51 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.02 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Short interest has increased by 58.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 41.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 4.1% below its 200 day moving average of $122.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 24.6% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Square, Inc. $83.49
Square, Inc. (SQ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Wednesday, February 26, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.20 per share on revenue of $1.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.24 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 80% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.19 to $0.21 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.65% with revenue increasing by 26.54%. Short interest has decreased by 4.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 34.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.8% above its 200 day moving average of $67.46. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,991 contracts of the $87.00 call expiring on Friday, February 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.9% move in recent quarters.
Home Depot, Inc. $245.34
Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.10 per share on revenue of $25.76 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.15 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 6.67% with revenue decreasing by 2.76%. Short interest has decreased by 17.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 12.1% above its 200 day moving average of $218.79. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,015 contracts of the $245.00 call expiring on Friday, February 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.0% move in recent quarters.
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. $33.87
Virgin Galactic Holdings, Inc. (SPCE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 56% expecting an earnings beat. The stock has drifted higher by 237.0% from its open following the earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.8% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Salesforce (CRM) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:05 PM ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.55 per share on revenue of $4.75 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.56 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.54 to $0.55 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 20.29% with revenue increasing by 31.83%. Short interest has decreased by 5.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 18.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 19.5% above its 200 day moving average of $158.62. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,926 contracts of the $210.00 call expiring on Friday, June 19, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.9% move in recent quarters.
Baidu, Inc. $129.80
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:30 PM ET on Thursday, February 27, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.72 per share on revenue of $3.96 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.27 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 72% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 39.49% with revenue increasing by 0.13%. Short interest has decreased by 30.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 12.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 11.4% above its 200 day moving average of $116.53. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, February 20, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,013 contracts of the $125.00 put expiring on Friday, March 27, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.
Macy's, Inc. $16.23
Macy's, Inc. (M) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:55 AM ET on Tuesday, February 25, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $8.32 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.98 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 17% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 28.57% with revenue decreasing by 1.60%. Short interest has increased by 0.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 13.5% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.6% below its 200 day moving average of $17.96. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,128 contracts of the $16.00 put expiring on Friday, February 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.8% move in recent quarters.
Cronos Group Inc. $7.15
Cronos Group Inc. (CRON) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, February 27, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.04 per share on revenue of $12.40 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.03) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 65% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 20.00% with revenue increasing by 192.38%. Short interest has increased by 28.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 11.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 32.9% below its 200 day moving average of $10.66. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, February 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,164 contracts of the $8.00 call expiring on Friday, February 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 11.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.6% move in recent quarters.
Chesapeake Energy Corp. $0.45
Chesapeake Energy Corp. (CHK) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, February 26, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.06 per share on revenue of $1.21 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.07) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 48% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 128.57% with revenue decreasing by 30.10%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 66.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 67.6% below its 200 day moving average of $1.38. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, February 21, 2020 there was some notable buying of 10,872 contracts of the $1.50 put expiring on Friday, March 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 14.5% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.2% move in recent quarters.
Best Buy Co., Inc. $90.26
Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Thursday, February 27, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.76 per share on revenue of $15.09 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.83 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $2.65 to $2.75 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 1.47% with revenue increasing by 1.95%. Short interest has increased by 10.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 21.3% above its 200 day moving average of $74.42. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 8.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.3% move in recent quarters.
What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead r/StockMarket.
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