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Stocks to Watch in November

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November is a month of cranberry sauce and gratitude, but it often means more than that for investors. We’re wrapping up earnings season now. Holiday shopping will kick off near the end of the month, leaving investors with more knowledge than they had when the month began.

Datadog (NASDAQ: DDOG), Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), and Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) are some of the companies that will be making moves this month. Let’s see why these are stocks to watch in November.

Activision Blizzard: Nov. 6

Die-hard gamers can be fickle, and this isn’t Activision Blizzard at its best. Analysts are bracing for a 29% year-over-year plunge in quarterly revenue when it reports financial results on Thursday afternoon, with profits being slashed by more than half. Expectations are low, and recent tensions in China, where Activision Blizzard’s move to suspend a prolific esports personality for making comments in support of the Hong Kong protests polarized gamers and investors alike.

Investors will be hanging on for hope when it comes to guidance this week. The company rolled out Call of Duty: Modern Warfare — the latest installment of its combat franchise that peaked in 2011 — as well as Call of Duty: Mobile for smartphone players last month. Between the new releases and a better handle on the fallout from its esports suspension, any insight that Activision Blizzard offers on its near-term prospects will go a long way to dictating the stock’s direction.

Datadog: Nov. 12

The last few months have been rough for the IPO market. We’ve seen prolific offerings come undone before the opening bell, and even many of the big names to make it to the trading floor have buckled below their IPO prices. Investing in IPO stocks isn’t easy these days.

Datadog is one of the few recent debutantes to still have its head above water. The cloud monitoring and analytics specialist went public at $27 in mid-September, and it’s currently trading 28% higher.

The first big test for any IPO is its initial earnings report as a public company, and for Datadog that will come next week. It has a lot of growth momentum heading into next Tuesday’s report. Revenue nearly doubled last year, and it has risen almost 80% through the first half of 2019. With more large companies hopping onto the cloud and uptime reigning supreme, Datadog’s been growing its client base, and the same can be said for how much those customers are willing to pay for the platform’s crucial insight.

A strong report will keep the party going for Datadog, naturally. If things don’t go swimmingly — if the top line decelerates sharply or its impressive dollar-based net retention rate takes a breather — it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the stock become the latest broken IPO. It’s hard to regain the market’s confidence if you burn investors in your first earnings report as a public company.

Amazon.com: Nov. 22

The timing of this year’s Thanksgiving holiday is going to pinch some retailers. The holiday that officially kicks off the telltale shopping season is on the fourth Thursday of the month, and since it falls on Nov. 28 this time, it’s the latest possible start for a season that always ends on Christmas.

Amazon is trying to make its own luck. Instead of following the calendar into Black Friday on Nov. 29, the world’s largest online retailer is launching an eight-day Black Friday sale that starts a week earlier. Kicking off sales on Nov. 22 is brilliant, giving it a jump on the brick-and-mortar competition that’s already reeling from the e-tail challenge. With the company continuing to speed up its fulfillment and lowering the minimum for free shipping on Amazon-warehoused goods, things are shaping up nicely again during this crucial time of year.

This article was originally published on Fool.com.
All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.

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John Mackey, CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Rick Munarriz owns shares of Datadog. The Motley Fool owns shares of and recommends Activision Blizzard and Amazon. The Motley Fool recommends Datadog. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

This article was originally published on Fool.com.
All figures quoted in US dollars unless otherwise stated.



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The IPOX® Week, April 06, 2020

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  • IPOX Indexes mixed as declines in IPOX U.S. outweighs strength in IPOX Europe, IPOX Nordic & IPOX China.
  • IPOX International (ETF: FPXI) heavyweight Riyadh-traded Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO AB) extends post-inclusion gains.
  • IPO Deal-flow Review & Outlook: April starts with two U.S. IPOs as Zentalis (ZNTL US) soars on debut. Slow month ahead amid coronavirus disruption.

IPOX Indexes mixed as weak IPOX U.S. outweighs strength in IPOX Europe and IPOX China. Amid Covid-19 driving continued strength in the U.S. Dollar & U.S. Bonds, while U.S. equity risk sank (VIX: -28.59%), the IPOX Strategies finished the week mixed. While U.S. equities succumbed to the big weakness in U.S. small-caps (RTY: -7.06%) anew post mid-week, markets abroad fared significantly better, led by the IPOX Nordic, IPOX Europe and IPOX China, driving the relative performance differential of the IPOX International (ETF:FPXI) vs. the International Market to a massive +1531 bps. YTD in IPOX’s favor. Amid no earnings visibility resulting in reducing multiples for growth stocks, e.g., the impact of liquidation-selling in secondary and tertiary equity positions was highlighted by the week’s return distribution in the IPOX 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX). Here, 70/100 holdings fell on the week, with the average (median) equally weighted position declining by -5.86% (-6.28%) a massive -299 (-341) bps. lower than when compared to the applied market-weighted IPOX 100 U.S. (ETF: FPXI), with the ESG-compliant IPOX ESG version (IPXT) faring even better. On a global

IPOX® International Investing (ETF: FPXI) since Fund launch:

level, this helped to push the market neutral IPOX Global Alts/Corporate Action strategy to a fresh all-time high, gaining +2.38% to +26.47% YTD last week. In individual exposure, we note the big performance jump in IPOX International (ETF: FPXI) heavyweight Riyadh-traded global energy behemoth Saudi Aramco (ARAMCO AB: +5.85%). With the “FPXI” ETF being the only ETF available to U.S. investors carrying significant weight, the company extended its two week-gain since portfolio inclusion to +9.52%. This helped to compensate for the significant losses in select small- and mid-caps held in the portfolio, including Chinese coffee chain Luckin Coffee (LK US: -79.01%), Brazilian payment processor StoneCo (STNE US: -27.09%) and Chinese application software maker GSX Techedu (GSX US: -21.91%). We also note the big relative strength in the Nordic-traded portion of the “FPXI” portfolio, with online casino software application maker Evolution Gaming (EVO SS: +12.51%), (EVO SS: +12.51%), cloud communications software Sinch (SINCH SS: +11.66%) and telecom IPO M&A Tele2 (TEL2B SS: +9.13%) leading the way.

Select IPOX® Indexes Price Returns (%) Last Week 2019 2020 YTD
IPOX® Indexes: Global/International
IPOX® Global (IPGL50) (USD) -2.57 27.93 -15.28
IPOX® Global Alternative (USD) 2.38 -1.96 26.47
IPOX® International (IPXI)* (USD) (ETF: FPXI) -2.75 31.37 -11.96
IPOX® Indexes: United States
IPOX® Composite U.S. (USD) -3.22 24.64 -21.57
IPOX® 100 U.S. (IPXO)* (USD) (ETF: FPX) -2.87 29.60 -25.19
IPOX® ESG (IPXT) (USD) -1.37
IPOX® Indexes: Europe/Nordic
IPOX® 30 Europe (IXTE) (EUR) 0.61 34.55 -9.21
IPOX® Nordic (IPND) 2.62 38.52 -14.41
IPOX® 100 Europe (IPOE)* (USD) -2.30 30.97 -18.65
IPOX® Indexes: Asia-Pacific/China
IPOX® Asia-Pacific (IPTA) (USD) -4.27 4.41 -17.56
IPOX® China (CNI) (USD) -0.30 26.31 -4.62
IPOX® Japan (IPJP)** (JPY) -4.61 37.91 -26.65

* Basis for ETFs: FPX US, FPX LN, FPXE US, FPXU FP, FPXI US, TCIP110 IT and CME-traded e-mini IPOX® 100 U.S. Futures (IPOM0). Source: Bloomberg L.P. & Refinitiv/Thomson Reuters.

IT’S THE NEW GENERATION: CME Group announces launch of 0.25 tick IPOX 100 U.S. Index Futures (Front month: IPOM0). Whether you are a risk manager or speculator, CME Group (CME US: +1.43%) – the world’s largest exchange operator – now offers investors efficient and cost effective access to the IPOX 100 U.S. (ETF: FPX) via emini IPOX 100 U.S. Index Futures (Front month: IPOM0). Contact info@ipox.com for further info and free resources.

IPO Deal-flow Review & Outlook: April starts with two U.S. IPOs as Zentalis (ZNTL US) soars on debut. Slow month ahead amid coronavirus disruption. Only 2 firms commenced trading across the global regions last week with the average equally-weighted deal adding +12.17% based on the difference between the final IPO offering price and Friday’s close. Chinese AR-advertising platform WiMi Hologram (WIMI US: -4.55%) fell on below-target offering whereas the New York-based cancer biotech Zentalis Pharmaceuticals (ZNTL US: +28.89%) surprised the market with its high-end and upsized IPO. As the COVID-19 pandemic deepens, April is set for a slow start with only one biotech (Keros Therapeutics [(KROS US)]) scheduled. Other IPO News include: 1) Thailands’s largest energy company PTT Oil & Retail Business (PTTOR) filed for another $1B+ IPO offer; and 2) COVID-19 vaccine maker Immunomic Therapeutics mulls IPO.

The post The IPOX® Week, April 06, 2020 appeared first on Low Cost Stock & Options Trading | Advanced Online Stock Trading | Lightspeed |.



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The State of the Retail Market – During and Post-COVID-19

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In today’s reality, markets have shifted and new trends are emerging. Consumers are focusing on needs versus wants; some products are in high demand, while others are headed for a world of surplus. As logistics and labor operations continue to shift, let’s take a look at what we’re seeing now based on data and insights from our B2B marketplaces and what we expect for retail and the secondary market once stores reopen. We’ve broken it down into three stages.

Stage 1: System shutdown + uncertainty of when it will end

Stay-at-home orders are in effect and  non-essential stores are closing (or for those businesses that are open, non-essential products aren’t moving). On the other side of things, online/pickup orders of essential products are spiking. These trends have trickled down to the secondary market.  Across our network of retailer marketplaces, we’ve seen: 

  • A substantial increase in demand for certain product categories including grocery, toys, educational items, and large appliances (freezers) 
  • Certain retailers that sell non-essential goods, have are paused their marketplaces altogether
  • Some are moving b-stock back to a-stock to accommodate demand in the primary market
  • Others are finding their traditional secondary market outlets are limited, so they are shifting more product to B-Stock.

Stage 2: Back to school, work, stores reopen 

As business—on all fronts—goes back to normal, so too will purchasing patterns. Though demand won’t decrease, the market will have to flush out all of the backed-up product. The current stock up of essentials will lead to excess inventory in that arena – both from manufacturers and retailers that were closed during the pandemic – and retailers that remained open but weren’t moving non-essential products like clothing and home goods.  

For retailers, the reopening their stores will mean two things: 1) The implementation of extended returns policies will result in a spike in returns and 2) They will be faced with excess inventory left over due to store closures. Combined, these factors will mean that traditional disposition channels – like outlet stores, discounters, and big liquidators –  will not be able to accommodate the increased inventory levels.

Stage 3: Back to steady state and a new normal

At this point, rather than holding onto the merchandise, businesses with excess inventory should start leveraging a B2B sales channel to sell directly into the secondary market. A B2B recommerce solution in the form of a private online auction marketplace enables the retailer to sell directly to thousands of business buyers; which will allow them to offset more loss and move inventory faster. 

B-Stock’s auction marketplaces are customized and scaled based on each retailer’s needs and goals. That’s why nine out of the top 10 U.S. retailers are leveraging our platform to drive demand and achieve higher pricing, as well as a faster sales cycle—all while maintaining brand integrity. 

In the aftermath of COVID-19, a new normal may emerge, producing a bigger secondary market than there was prior. If you want to harness the value of the secondary market for your excess inventory—schedule a demo today.

Request Demo

The post The State of the Retail Market – During and Post-COVID-19 appeared first on B-Stock Solutions.



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March 2020: MoneyWorks4me Outlook

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This article covers the following:

Review

Nifty has fallen 26% in the last 1 year ending Mar’20 and -6% CAGR in the last 3 years.

Nifty has corrected more than -31% while most of the stocks are already down 40-50% and close to 7-10 year lows.

Equity inflows were the highest in the last 3-4 years which means that an average investor’s portfolio hasn’t earned good returns from equity for a long time.

The very risk in equity investing is that returns don’t come in a predictable fashion.

The overall sentiment is low due to consistent FII selling and fear of contagion from CoronaVirus.

From the previous month, lockdown in the entire country has led to severe cuts in earnings estimates for many businesses. While there is a concern on a slowdown in the economy, drop in prices are way more than actual impact on long term earnings.

Outlook

As on date, the average upside of our coverage universe is likely to be more than 15% CAGR over the next 3 years.

Just a handful of companies will be delivering earning growth due to existing slowdown and further lockdown to contain COVID-19 spread.

Some pockets of the market like consumer staples and insurance/AMCs are trading at stretched valuation. Since consumer staples have a more resilient business even during a slowdown, they will remain high for some more time.

This trend will reverse as other sectors start showing signs of improvement. We recommend to avoid pockets of euphoria and be patient.

Do not chase recent performers as it can lead to big disappointment in the future even if there is no price correction seen in a recent market correction.

All the gainers of last year are either consumer or pharmaceutical stocks.

We find that Nifty 50 now trades 10-12% below its fair value as stocks with large weightage in the index have come down drastically while some stocks that were already cheap got cheaper.

Unlike 2008, we are coming off already sombre business performance. This has made valuations very cheap on long term basis with just 30% fall in index. Due to current lockdown anything into the future looks hazy but once we see stability, we can expect a lot of improvement in business and valuation.

We are looking at companies that have good earning triggers over the next 2 years as we are not certain whether broad-based recovery will happen immediately. We are investing in companies i) coming out of sector consolidation, or ii) introducing new products, or iii) commissioning new capacities or iv) executing the order in hand. This gives some certainty as to why there will be growth when things go back to normal post lockdown.

An investor can consider investing in value and high dividend yield stocks like capital goodshigh-quality PSUs, private sector corporate banks, pharmaceuticals, and select NBFCs. Now as more sectors are correcting, we will recommend it as they reach our desired price.

We are avoiding sectors or stocks that may have become cheap but they have high debt or they operate in highly cyclical sectors.

Our reasonable exposure to pharma stocks, high dividend yield stocks and liquid funds has led to lesser than market correction. Use our portfolio manager to account for dividends/stock splits and computing portfolio returns.

We are buying small and mid-cap stocks selectively, however, we do not find merit in going overboard in these stocks as we are seeing the very sluggish economy and limited growth triggers in most sectors. A SIP product may work in such a small & mid-cap but we recommend caution on lump-sum purchases till we don’t see broad-based earnings recovery in mid and small-cap companies.

Risks

CoronaVirus – Global

As on date, total infected cases have crossed 1,360,247 and 75,000 deaths from CoronaVirus. A lot of countries are under lockdown and businesses are affected.

China is seeing business activities pick up gradually upto 80% while businesses in US/Europe/India are affected.

With public awareness and government’s precautionary measures in immigration and quarantine of infected patients and most recent lockdown, we believe the spread will be contained. The timeline of the same remains the uncertain factor.

China and South Korea have already seen a steep fall in new cases due to self-quarantine measures. Now Italy and UK are seeing plateauing in new cases while US is seeing exponential rise as it was late in imposing lockdown.

Financial Market contagion

Worldwide the central banks are taking measures to ensure better liquidity in the system and reducing the interest rates to soften the blow from a slowdown in business activities.

It is to be seen whether this will actually result in desired effects or will it further scare the markets. Banks and investors are shying away from making risky investments into corporate bonds, etc.

US markets have become very risk-averse as investors are selling stocks and moving the funds to bonds. 10 Y bond yield less than 0.5% p.a. and 2 Y yield is below 0%.

The US has had 10 years of economic expansion. A recession won’t be a surprise but its implication on the assets prices is rather sudden and across the board.

Even if US goes into recession and later slow recovery, the countries with limited trade with US don’t have an economic impact.

For example, a country like India exports less than $60 billion to US. The impact from the same will be quite limited to the overall Indian economy.

Most of the exports that happen from India lead to cost-saving for US businesses and citizens (ex. IT and Pharma). So in a way, this trade won’t be cut during a slow-growth period in the US. This makes us confident that India’s future prospects won’t be hit adversely from recession in US.

Only trouble seems to be FII investment in public markets of India can be sold out at a moment’s notice taking the stock prices lower in the short term. This leads to huge volatility without material change in the underlying business.

Opportunity for long term investors (Must Read)

  • Equity return is already so poor, will it earn reasonable returns over next few years to compensate for past performance also?
  • Is the market correction already over?
  • I am adding money every month, what if I miss market bottom?
  • Why is it so difficult to buy stocks in correction?
  • What are there mad rallies now and then?
  • How does having just 10-20% in liquid funds help?
  • What the risks in equity?

We know you’ve more questions than we can answer. But we will answer all the key questions in the following paragraphs.

Equity returns are already so poor, will they make reasonable returns over next few years to compensate for past performance also?

Long term investing means that we buy stocks for the underlying business. As far as a business does well, we can be sure the stocks would reflect the same growth over the long term. Near term events matter only for small period of time but over 3-5 years, it is business performance that wins.

Since most listed businesses weren’t doing great, their valuation weren’t very high. Falling from reasonable valuation have made them quite cheap. Unlike 2008, Indian market was trading at less than 19x P/E ratio (ex-consumer stocks) in 2019. Today it has fallen below 15x. We have assumed large cap companies will go back to earn normal profits in FY2022.

Imagine this way, if business valuation is 100/share and stock trades at 150 (bull market), it falls 50% to 75/share. It may close the gap with fair value of 100/share soon, but it may not recover to 150 soon as that price was way above its fair value. (US is staring at this scenario)

In India (also other emerging markets), stocks have fallen 30% from 100/share to 70/share. So we find that a lot of stocks have corrected from reasonable valuation rather than bull market valuation (P/E, P/S, P/B) making them as cheap as 2008 bottom.

(In 2008, Nifty was 28x P/E ratio on peak margins for most of the business, unlike 2019 where Nifty P/E was 27x on depressed profits of corporate banks, telecom and commodities – this is also the reason why Nifty remained more than 24x P/E for long time in past 5 years; besides, select stocks like HUL, Nestle, Bajaj Finance, Titan & Kotak Mahindra Bank as a group contributed to high P/E ratio of Nifty)

Is the market correction already over? I am adding money every month, what if I miss market bottom?

We are saying that Indian market has become very cheap with just 30% correction doesn’t mean they will not correct further. Timing the bottom is close to impossible and not crucial to make a good return. Buy good business at reasonably cheap price also make a very good long term return.

Why is it so difficult to buy stocks in correction?

The market correction has been the best time to add to stocks always. But it becomes difficult to add as our existing portfolio is also bleeding. This makes us nervous and ‘exaggerate risks’ in short term.

What are there mad rallies now and then?

Whenever VIX is high, derived from market price estimates, the market volatility is the highest. To put it simply, usually whenever there is high uncertainty, markets tends to have wide price estimates. This leads to large moves in prices.

Uncertainty is the highest during market correction as it happens due to a big event. This leads to high volatility on upside as well as downside. This is in lines with past market corrections.

Volatility from Jan 2001 to Dec 2003

Volatility from Jan 2008 to Dec 2009

Above charts of Sensex show only more than 3% moves on either side during the correction period. We can’t ascribe any fundamental reason for such violent moves even if we do read in media random headline ‘XYZ lead to market rally/slump’.

How does having 10-20% in liquid funds help?

Let’s say you had 20% in liquid funds. These funds if invested carefully in stocks that have fallen 50% and have upside potential for 80-100% can alone add 15-20% return to overall portfolio in market recovery year, alternatively it will add around 3-4% CAGR to annual return over 5 year period.

Another way to look at it from current portfolio value; if we assume 80% equity portion has fallen 30% as much as the market, liquid portion has become around ~25% portfolio. This 25% portfolio today alone can earn 80-100% return and rest of the portfolio just recovers. Fresh investment needs to be invested very carefully to take advantage of cheap valuation, hence we recommend not to add to stocks that are already run up a lot in past few years. You can also think of adding fresh funds that you don’t need for next 5 years and bear short volatility on the same.

As on today we do not recommend to be fully invested. We will mention in our note the right time to go all in within equity portfolio.

What are the risks?

Risk of low returns:

Equity gives long term returns in the range of 7%-20% CAGR. We might be in one phase of 7% CAGR. We discard this possibility as we are right now at a very cheap valuation versus its historical average. As markets recover to fair price multiples, the returns would look better.

Risk of volatility:

We have already identified a certain portion of savings to be invested in equity. This was done exactly for such kind of volatility.

We have already taken care of the risk of volatility by committing only a portion of Equity. The rest of the savings are in Gold, Real Estate and Fixed income.

So getting afraid to add more funds is ‘double accounting’ for the same risk which has been taken care of.

The correct way to look at return is on aggregate including all your assets. This helps not getting carried away in good market nor worry too much during market correction.

Risk of delayed recovery: 

We always say that only surplus funds, not needed for more than 5 years must be parked into equities. Even if recovery is at a later date, we don’t have to worry about delayed returns in equity.

Equity return often come in unpredictable manner and they can be very steep on either side. But they trend upwards as India’s economy keeps growing.

Risk from business:

Whatever the calamity, not all businesses get affected. Even a storm can’t destroy every house in a town. Stronger ones remain steady. The same applies while a building a portfolio in equity.

A stock can lose significant value but a portfolio of stocks doesn’t crumble altogether. Let those loser lose and winners recover.

As far as you keep checking your overall returns rather than individual stock, you will sail through the fears and come out strongly.

This is not the time to panic or putting hold on fresh investments. You must keep buying, albeit slowly as prices come off.

What are some of the positives?

For now, the spread in India appears lower than US or Italy. We hope (pray) that early lockdown would help contain spread of infections versus developed countries.

Rural economy seems less infected and can come out of lockdown sooner than urban areas. If rural economy starts doing fine, we may start seeing some optimism coming back to people and businesses.

Development of vaccines is happening at rapid pace. Even if people don’t get vaccinated, sooner vaccine develops, sooner things go back to normal.

Awareness of infections spread will make people follow social distancing and reduce the spread further. Before the lockdown, most people weren’t aware that they might be infected by the virus and likely to spread to others.

Government is aware of fallouts of lockdown and proactive enough to announce measures to combat slowdown. We find that such events are rare and we would know what would have been the best way out only in hindsight. For now, collaborative approach, acknowledgement of pain areas and support for rehabilitation is expected from the government. It appears it will be delivered since all the governments worldwide are doing the same.

Where do we go from here?

Overall markets may remain subdued until the time earnings growth kick in. But this doesn’t mean individual stocks won’t rise.

We expect superior returns from stock picking as average stock today is trading cheaper than Nifty itself.

Near term uncertainty in structural growth, story spells an opportunity for long term investors. Stocks are beaten down from fear of short term slowdown and the cuts are much more than actual impact on business.

We do not find any merit in second-guessing what’s going to happen in the next 6 months-1 year. We leave this field open for speculators, fear mongers, and punters.

We have often seen that after such a sudden fall, the rebound could be equally sharp whenever it happens. We recommend to stay put and not worry looking at prices.

We are managing only long term money and predicting near term events is futile.

Sensex

Sensex Annual Gain Loss
We continue to recommend Gold Fund/Gold (up to 5-10% of the portfolio) as a hedge from contagion risks and some allocation to safe liquid funds/Fixed Deposits (10-20%) within in equity portfolio for capturing new opportunities.

Act on our calls and restrict your allocation to 3-5% in each stock. And not more than 25% in each mutual fund. This will keep you at peace, and not significantly dent your portfolio performance.

Beyond this, tinkering asset allocation will only reduce long term returns thereby missing one’s target corpus. We have diversified our stocks portfolio, we have diversified assets and we have long term horizon. Together this takes care of all potential risks in investing.

Happy Investing!

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